Identifying Crime Patterns
March 27, 2012
Pugh Town??™s Police Department Crime Bulletin Report
*Police Chief Steve Doolittle*
*Crime Analyst Carmen Holt*
Crime | 2009 | 2010 | Percent of Change |
Homicides | 15 | 21 | 40.00% |
Forcible Rapes | 23 | 19 | -17.39% |
Robberies | 55 | 79 | 43.64% |
Aggravated Assaults | 85 | 115 | 35.29% |
Burglaries | 125 | 138 | 10.40% |
Motor Vehicle theft | 103 | 103 | 0.00% |
Larcenies | 35 | 38 | 8.57% |
Crime trend is defined as a significant change in the nature of selected crime types within a defined geographical area and time period. It is the measure of significant changes in an area??™s crime pattern over time (US Legal, 2012).
I believe that the data for Pugh Town Police Department shows an overall increase in majority of the crimes listed. Aggravated assault shows a considerable increase, while forcible rape has a decrease. Homicides, robberies, and aggravated assaults (the most) have increased considerably. In this jurisdiction, one would think there may be some gang or drug activity going on (Siegel, 2010). Pugh Town??™s population is the missing information that we don??™t have that could be the reason for the increase. Maps indicating the location of incidents would be helpful to interpret the increases in these crimes. Another piece of information that might be helpful would be demographical data about the locations of the incidents; this data would contain information on unemployment rates, economical fluctuations, and ethnic makeup of the areas affected by the increase (Wilson, 2009). The crime that seems to be staying the same for this jurisdiction is motor vehicle thefts in 2009 they were 103 and in 2010 the numbers were the same 103.
Crimes in this jurisdiction that should be analyzed a little more would be the ones with the largest increase. Robberies, with a 43.64% increase, homicide, with a 40.00% increase, and aggravated assault with a 35.29% increase. Identifying geospatial locations of the incidents and map them, I can locate the incident reports by address and chart the details given in the report to locate similarities in times, days of the week, modus operandi, offender description and other
details that will help me identify trends. This particular analyst would be considered strategic, because it focused on patterns, trends, and causes of crime than in a particular crime or offender or their apprehension (IACA, 2004).
The crimes that are listed in our crime bulletin are all Part I crimes, which are major crimes and are divided into two categories of Part I offenses: violent crime and property crime. Violent or personal crimes are murder, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault and property crimes consist of burglary, larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. Part II crimes differ in they are less serious than those that make the crime index, like social-order or so-called victimless crimes (Schmalleger, 2007).
International Association of Crime Analysis, (2004). Exploring Crime Analysis: Readings on Essential Skills. Published by I.A.C.A.
Schmalleger, F. (2007) Criminal Justice Today: An Introductory Text for the Twenty-First Century (9th ed.). Published by Prentice Hall
Siegel, L. J. (2010). Criminology: Theories, Patterns, and Typologies. (10th ed.) Belmont Wadsworth Cengage Learning
Wilson, J.Q., (2009). Crime and Economy: Don??™t Tell the Whole Story. Los Angeles Times